Characteristics and Lag Time of Meteorological Drought Propagation to Hydrological Drought in the Haihe River Basin

Kuan Liu, Buliao Guan, Jiaqi Zhai (), Qingming Wang, Yong Zhao, Yankun Cao and Longlong Zhang
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Kuan Liu: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Buliao Guan: Institute of Bio-Geosciences (IBG-3, Agrosphere), Forschungszentrum Jülich, 52425 Jülich, Germany
Jiaqi Zhai: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Qingming Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yong Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yankun Cao: College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Longlong Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-25

Abstract: Understanding the propagation dynamics from meteorological to hydrological droughts, particularly in regions heavily influenced by human activities, is essential for the effective monitoring and prevention of hydrological drought risks. This study focuses on the Haihe River Basin, investigating the evolution of meteorological and hydrological droughts using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index and the Standardized Runoff Index, supplemented by run theory analysis. Using correlation analysis, we examine the propagation lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts. Our results indicate a worsening drought trend in the Haihe River Basin over the past six decades. Notably, a turning point occurred in 1991, where meteorological droughts began to abate, while hydrological droughts intensified, highlighting a divergence in trends between meteorological and hydrological droughts. We identify four distinct pathways for the transition from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the region. This study identifies a hydrological drought lag time of 3 months. The occurrence of droughts in the Haihe River Basin is becoming increasingly frequent. Furthermore, our findings reveal that the severity of hydrological droughts is increasingly exceeding that of meteorological droughts, and the influence of meteorological conditions on hydrological droughts is diminishing, while human activities may become a more significant contributing factor. The findings from this research enhance our comprehension of how drought propagation trends and characteristics are shaped by significant human influences, thereby offering pivotal insights for managing water resources at the basin level.

Keywords: meteorological drought; hydrological drought; propagation lag time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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