Projection of Photovoltaic System Adoption and Its Impact on a Distributed Power Grid Using Fuzzy Logic

Kevin López-Eugenio, Pedro Torres-Bermeo, Carolina Del-Valle-Soto and José Varela-Aldás ()
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Kevin López-Eugenio: Centro de Investigación en Mecatrónica y Sistemas Interactivos (MIST), Facultad de Ingenierías, Maestría en Big Data y Ciencia de Datos, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador
Pedro Torres-Bermeo: Centro de Investigación en Mecatrónica y Sistemas Interactivos (MIST), Facultad de Ingenierías, Maestría en Big Data y Ciencia de Datos, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador
Carolina Del-Valle-Soto: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Panamericana, Álvaro del Portillo 49, Zapopan 45010, Mexico
José Varela-Aldás: Centro de Investigación en Mecatrónica y Sistemas Interactivos (MIST), Facultad de Ingenierías, Maestría en Big Data y Ciencia de Datos, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-28

Abstract: The increasing adoption of photovoltaic systems presents new challenges for energy planning and grid stability. This study proposes a fuzzy logic-based methodology to identify potential PV adopters by integrating variables such as energy consumption, electricity tariff, solar radiation, and socioeconomic level. The approach was applied to a real distribution grid and compared against a previously presented method that selects users based solely on high energy consumption. The fuzzy logic model demonstrated superior performance by identifying 77.03 [%] of real adopters, outperforming the previous selection strategy. Additionally, the study evaluates the technical impact of PV integration on the distribution grid through power flow simulations, analysing energy losses, voltage stability, and asset loadability. Findings highlight that while PV systems reduce energy losses, they can also introduce voltage regulation challenges under high penetration. The proposed methodology serves as a decision-support tool for utilities and regulators, enhancing the accuracy of adoption projections and informing infrastructure planning. Its flexibility and rule-based nature make it adaptable to different regulatory and technical environments, allowing it to be replicated globally for sustainable energy transition initiatives.

Keywords: photovoltaic adoption; fuzzy logic; electricity tariff; energy consumption; distributed energy resources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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