Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives

Ayobami Badiru (), Lívia Humaire, Lucas Suassuna de Albuquerque Wanderley and Andreas Matzarakis
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Ayobami Badiru: Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, 79085 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
Lívia Humaire: Center for Anthropology and Health, University of Coimbra, CC Martim de Freitas, 3000-456 Coimbra, Portugal
Lucas Suassuna de Albuquerque Wanderley: Federal Institute of Education, Sciences and Technology of Alagoas, Coruripe 57230-000, Brazil
Andreas Matzarakis: Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, 79085 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-20

Abstract: This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the tourism potential of Northeastern Brazil by analyzing historical trends and future climate projections, identifying climate risks, and proposing spatially targeted adaptation strategies. Historical daily climate data from the BR-DWGD and future projections from the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model under the SSP2 4.5 scenario were used to evaluate extremes in temperature and precipitation. Principal component analysis and spatial cluster analysis were applied to identify five climatically homogeneous zones across the region. Results indicate generalized warming trends and intensifying rainfall extremes, particularly in coastal clusters where tourism infrastructure is concentrated. Inland zones, especially those with semi-arid climates, exhibit rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increasing water scarcity. These differentiated climatic patterns pose risks to infrastructure, ecosystem services, and the overall sustainability of tourism. In response, the study proposes adaptation measures tailored to each zone, including improved drainage systems, sustainable cooling technologies, rainwater harvesting, and diversification of tourism activities. Emphasis is placed on community-based governance to enhance social equity and resilience. The findings highlight the relevance of spatialized climate analysis for guiding adaptation planning and supporting a more inclusive and climate-resilient tourism sector in the region.

Keywords: sustainable tourism; climate change; northeastern Brazil; adaptation strategies; climate risk assessment; spatial analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5290-:d:1674269

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