Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area

Chenglong Li, Jingyi Shi, Yihong Chen, Wenwen Zou, Anna Chen and Yue Pan ()
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Chenglong Li: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Jingyi Shi: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Yihong Chen: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Wenwen Zou: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Anna Chen: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Yue Pan: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-20

Abstract: Confronting escalating urban ecological risks, this study investigates ecosystem resilience evolution in the Jinan metropolitan area’s mountain–plain structure. We establish a Resistance–Adaptability–Resilience (RAR) framework integrating ecosystem service value and landscape patterns. Using Optimal Multi-layered Geo-Detector and Markov–FLUS modeling, we quantify natural–socio-economic interactions and simulate resilience under three scenarios: inertial development, cultivated land protection, and ecological priority. The results show fluctuating resilience (0.1863→0.1876→0.1863) with functional intensification in high-value areas and escalating vulnerability in low-value regions, alongside the spatial dichotomy between the resilient southern mountains and northern plains, dominated by natural factors. Cultivated land protection degrades mountain resilience via slope farming, while ecological priority stabilizes it through transitional controls. The proposed “resilience red line–development permit” mechanism demonstrates terrain and policy integration optimizing resilience allocation. This framework offers strategies to reconcile ecological conservation and farmland security in urbanizing regions.

Keywords: ecosystem resilience; RAR model; OMGD model; Markov–FLUS model; Jinan metropolitan area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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