Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Sub-Tropical Fruit Suitability Using MaxEnt: A Regional Study from Southern Türkiye

Mehmet Özgür Çelik, Osman Orhan () and Mehmet Ali Kurt
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Mehmet Özgür Çelik: Geomatics Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Mersin University, 33343 Mersin, Türkiye
Osman Orhan: Geomatics Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Mersin University, 33343 Mersin, Türkiye
Mehmet Ali Kurt: Environmental Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Mersin University, 33343 Mersin, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-34

Abstract: This study, conducted in Mersin, a Mediterranean sub-tropical area, examined the potential of avocado and pitaya to thrive under current and future climate conditions. Researchers utilized climate and soil data, initially selecting 14 parameters (mean annual temperature, mean minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean annual precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, land use capability, soil pH, soil organic carbon, soil salinity, land cover, elevation, slope, and groundwater level) for analysis, which were narrowed down to 12 after correlation analysis. The potential distributions were projected using the MaxEnt model for current and future scenarios. Three global climate models—HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and GFDL-ESM4—were utilized under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under SSP2-4.5, an average increase of 1.32%, 1.95%, and 4.02% in the “S1” class is expected. For SSP5-8.5, average gains of 1.33%, 1.58%, and 0.77% are projected. In Pitaya, the “S1” class in SSP2-4.5 is expected to increase by 0.96% compared to the first model and decrease by 7.06% and 5.71% compared to the other models, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, the changes are determined to be 1.49%, −7.27%, and −7.28%, respectively. Our findings indicate that climate change poses a significant threat to the region; however, the application demonstrates that agricultural activities can remain sustainable despite climate change impacts.

Keywords: climate change; avocado; pitaya; SDMs; suitability analysis; sustainable agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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