Evolution and Mechanism of Population and Construction Land Decoupling in China: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Ziyi Yuan, Qingsong Ni, Zongfeng Chen (), Bo Hu, Jiaxin Zhong () and Pingan Liu
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Ziyi Yuan: POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, Chengdu 610072, China
Qingsong Ni: POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, Chengdu 610072, China
Zongfeng Chen: Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Bo Hu: POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, Chengdu 610072, China
Jiaxin Zhong: School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
Pingan Liu: POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, Chengdu 610072, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-21

Abstract: With the accelerated urbanization in China, the irrational utilization of land resources has triggered a series of ecological challenges. In this context, exploring the decoupling relationship between population and construction land is crucial for achieving land sustainable development. This paper applied Tapio and Geodetector models to Shandong Province, analyzing population–land decoupling evolution and mechanism. The results show the following: (1) Significant spatiotemporal differences exist, with a total of eight decoupling types identified; the main decoupling types of Shandong include strong negative decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and strong decoupling. (2) A strong negative decoupling type characterized by “population decline and land expansion” was predominant, though coordination trends are emerging. (3) Weak decoupling townships were primarily influenced by resource factors and transportation; strong decoupling townships were mainly affected by economic activities and transportation; strong negative decoupling townships were closely related to resource factors and economic activities. (4) Multi-factor interactions have a considerable impact on the formation of the population–land decoupling relationship, with natural constraints and economic transformation drivers jointly contributing to diverse decoupling patterns.

Keywords: population–land decoupling; evolution and mechanism; geographical detector; Shandong Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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