The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the InVEST-PLUS Model

Hu Chen, Yi Sun (), Diwei Tang, Jian Song, Yi Tu and Qi Zhang
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Hu Chen: Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China
Yi Sun: Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China
Diwei Tang: Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China
Jian Song: The Second Geological Brigade of Hubei Geological Bureau, Enshi 445000, China
Yi Tu: Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China
Qi Zhang: Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-30

Abstract: The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are important bases for high-tech, advanced manufacturing, and modern service industries in China, as well as a demonstration area for the coordination of economic and ecological construction, which plays an important role in the ecosystem carbon cycle. With the steady progress of social and economic development and urbanization, the supply capacity of ecosystem services has sharply decreased, and the carbon cycle mechanism has changed, further reducing the sustainability of regional ecosystem services. In this study, carbon storage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was estimated from 2000 to 2020 based on the InVEST model, and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were summarized using the coefficient of variation and spatial autocorrelation. The coupled InVEST-PLUS model was used to simulate the carbon storage characteristics of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under natural development, ecological protection, cultivated land protection, and urban development scenarios in 2035. The results show the following: (1) The main land-use types in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are cultivated and forest land, and the land-use types in the study area show the characteristics of “two increases and four decreases” in the past 20 years. (2) The carbon storage level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has decreased by 83.65 × 10 6 t in the past 20 years (approximately 1.16%). The coefficient of variation showed that the carbon storage level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was high, with the fluctuating area accounting for 8.79% of the total area. The results of local spatial autocorrelation show that the high-value areas of carbon storage are mainly distributed in the west and southeast of the study area, and the low-value areas are mainly distributed in the middle of the study area, exhibiting characteristics of “high values surrounding low values” in space. (3) The simulation results of carbon storage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in 2035 showed that the ecological protection scenario was better than the other scenarios in terms of the mean level, functional performance, and patch presentation.

Keywords: middle reaches of Yangtze River; InVEST-PLUS model; carbon stock; spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics; multi-scenario simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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