Türkiye’s Sustainability Challenge: An Empirical ARDL Analysis of the Impact of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Agricultural Growth on Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Esra Kaplan ()
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Esra Kaplan: Department of Agricultural Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University, 60250 Tokat, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-16

Abstract: Global climate change, driven predominantly by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, poses one of the most critical challenges to sustainability in the 21st century. As Türkiye continues to pursue economic expansion and agricultural development, the resulting rise in energy consumption has led to a substantial increase in CO 2 emissions. Given Türkiye’s position as the world’s 17th largest economy and its ranking as the 15th highest CO 2 emitter, understanding the country’s exposure to climate risks is essential for informing policy efforts aimed at sustainable development. This study investigates the dynamic interplay between CO 2 emissions and their primary determinants in Türkiye, offering empirical insights into the pathways through which these factors influence environmental sustainability. Utilizing a 34-year time series and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the findings reveal that both economic growth and energy consumption contribute significantly to rising CO 2 emissions, thereby exacerbating environmental degradation. Conversely, an increase in agricultural value added is associated with a reduction in CO 2 emissions, highlighting its potential role in improving environmental quality. The results underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive legal and institutional framework that supports technological innovation and accelerates the transition toward a low-carbon economy in Türkiye.

Keywords: sustainability; energy; agriculture; CO 2 emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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