Decoupling Analysis and Scenario Prediction of Port Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Shanghai Port, China

Yuye Zou () and Ruyue Wang
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Yuye Zou: School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Ruyue Wang: School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-27

Abstract: This study presents a comprehensive analysis of carbon emission trends and their driving factors at Shanghai Port, with a particular focus on the decoupling relationship between port economic development and carbon emissions, as well as forecasting the timeline for achieving the port’s carbon peak. The findings reveal distinct temporal patterns in emission growth: from 2009 to 2012, Shanghai Port experienced steady increases in carbon emissions, while from 2020 to 2023, it witnessed accelerated growth, primarily driven by fuel oil consumption. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model, the study identifies operational revenue as the most significant contributor to carbon emission growth, while economic intensity emerges as the strongest inhibiting factor. Notably, the carbon-promoting effects of energy structure and efficiency improvements substantially outweigh the emission reductions achieved through enhanced economic intensity. The Tapio decoupling analysis indicates that during 2010–2023, neither operational revenue nor port cargo throughput capacity achieved stable decoupling from carbon emissions at Shanghai Port. Operational revenue exhibited alternating patterns of strong and weak decoupling, while cargo throughput showed more pronounced fluctuations, cycling through phases of decoupling and negative decoupling. Scenario-based predictions using the GRU-LSTM hybrid model provide critical insights: under the baseline scenario, Shanghai Port is projected to fail to achieve a carbon peak by 2035. However, both the low-carbon and enhanced mitigation scenarios project a carbon peak around 2026, with the enhanced scenario enabling earlier attainment of the target. These findings offer valuable theoretical foundations for formulating Shanghai Port’s carbon peak strategy and provide practical guidance for emission management and policy development at ports. The methodological framework and empirical results presented in this study may serve as a reference for other major ports pursuing similar decarbonization goals.

Keywords: carbon emissions; decoupling effect; GRU-LSTM model; LMDI model; scenario forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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