Precipitation Changes and Future Trend Predictions in Typical Basin of the Loess Plateau, China

Beilei Liu, Qi Liu, Peng Li (), Zhanbin Li, Jiajia Guo, Jianye Ma, Bo Wang and Xiaohuang Liu
Additional contact information
Beilei Liu: State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, No. 26 Xinong Road, Xianyang 712100, China
Qi Liu: Tianshui Experimental Station on Soil and Water Conservation, No. 60 Park Road, Tianshui 741000, China
Peng Li: Institute of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Zhanbin Li: State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, No. 26 Xinong Road, Xianyang 712100, China
Jiajia Guo: GEOVIS Earth Technology Co., Ltd., Hefei 230000, China
Jianye Ma: Institute of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Bo Wang: Xi’an Mineral Resources Investigation Centre of the China Geological Survey, No. 66 West Fengqi Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Xiaohuang Liu: Key Laboratory of Natural Resource Element Coupling and Effects, Ministry of Natural Resources, Natural Resources and Earth System Science, Beijing 100055, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-18

Abstract: This study analyzes precipitation patterns and future trends in the Kuye River Basin in the context of climate change, providing a scientific foundation for water resource management and ecological protection. Using methods such as the Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt test, and complex Morlet wavelet analysis, this study examines both interannual and intra-annual variability in historical precipitation data, identifying abrupt changes and periodic patterns. Future projections are based on CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, forecasting changes over the next 30 years (2023–2052). The results reveal significant spatiotemporal variability in precipitation, with 88.16% concentrated in the summer and flood seasons, while only 1.07% falls in winter. The basin’s multi-year average precipitation is 445 mm, exhibiting stable interannual variability, but with a significant increase starting in 2006. Projections indicate that the average annual precipitation will rise to 524.69 mm from 2023 to 2052, with a notable change point in 2043. Precipitation is expected to increase spatially from northwest to southeast. This research underscores the importance of understanding precipitation dynamics in managing drought and flood risks. It highlights the role of soil and water conservation and vegetation restoration in improving water resource efficiency, supporting sustainable development, and guiding climate adaptation strategies.

Keywords: precipitation; CMIP5; the Loess Plateau; predictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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