Bank-Specific Credit Risk Factors and Long-Term Financial Sustainability: Evidence from a Panel Error Correction Model

Ronald Nhleko () and Michael Adelowotan
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Ronald Nhleko: Department of Accountancy, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Cnr Kingsway Avenue and University Road, Auckland Park, Johannesburg 2006, South Africa
Michael Adelowotan: Department of Accountancy, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Cnr Kingsway Avenue and University Road, Auckland Park, Johannesburg 2006, South Africa

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-27

Abstract: This study examines the long-term financial sustainability of commercial banks, emphasizing the crucial role of credit risk management. Given that the core function of credit creation inherently exposes banks to credit risk, this analysis evaluates how five key bank-specific risk variables, namely expected credit losses (ECL_BS), impairment gains or losses (ECL_IS), non-performing loans (NPLs), common equity tier 1 capital (CET1), and leverage (LEV) affect long-term financial sustainability. Applying a panel error correction model on data from listed South African banks spanning 2006 to 2023, the study reveals a stable long-term relationship, with approximately 74% of short-term deviations corrected over time, indicating convergence towards equilibrium. By taking into account the significance of major exogeneous shocks such as the 2009–2010 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as regulatory framework changes, the results reveal persistent relationships between credit risk factors and banks’ long-term financial sustainability in both short and long horizons. Notably, expected credit losses, and impairment gains and losses exert significant negative influence on long-term financial sustainability, while higher CET1 and NPLs exhibit positive effects. The study findings are framed within four complementary theoretical perspectives—the resource-based view, institutional theory, industrial organisation, and the dynamic capabilities framework—highlighting the multidimensional drivers of financial resilience. Thus, the study’s originality lies in its integrated approach to assessing credit risk, offering a holistic model for evaluating its influence on long-term financial sustainability. This integrated framework provides valuable, actionable insights for financial regulators, bank executives, policymakers, and banking practitioners committed to strengthening credit risk frameworks and aligning banking sector stability with broader sustainable development goals.

Keywords: credit risk; long-term financial sustainability; expected credit losses (ECLs); common equity tier 1 (CET1); impairment gains and losses; non-performing loans (NPLs); IFRS 9; panel error correction model (PECM) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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