Assessing the Hazard of Flooding from Breaching of the Alacranes Dam in Villa Clara, Cuba

Victor Manuel Carvajal González, Carlos Lázaro Castillo García, Lisdelys González-Rodriguez (), Luciana Silva and Jorge Jiménez
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Victor Manuel Carvajal González: Facultad de Construcciones, Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Carretera a Camajuaní Km 9 1/2, Santa Clara 50100, Cuba
Carlos Lázaro Castillo García: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción 4030000, Chile
Lisdelys González-Rodriguez: Facultad de Ingeniería y Negocios, Universidad de Las Américas, Sede Concepción, Concepción 4030000, Chile
Luciana Silva: Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción 403000, Chile
Jorge Jiménez: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción 4030000, Chile

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-22

Abstract: Flooding due to dam failures is a critical issue with significant impacts on human safety, infrastructure, and the environment. This study assessed the potential flood hazard that could be generated from breaching of the Alacranes dam in Villa Clara, Cuba. Thirteen reservoir breaching scenarios were simulated under several criteria for modeling the flood wave through the 2D Saint Venant equations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). A sensitivity analysis was performed on Manning’s roughness coefficient, demonstrating a low variability of the model outputs for these events. The results show that, for all modeled scenarios, the terrain topography of the coastal plain expands the flood wave, reaching a maximum width of up to 105,057 km. The most critical scenario included a 350 m breach in just 0.67 h. Flood, velocity, and hazard maps were generated, identifying populated areas potentially affected by the flooding events. The reported depths, velocities, and maximum flows could pose extreme danger to infrastructure and populated areas downstream. These types of studies are crucial for both risk assessment and emergency planning in the event of a potential dam breach.

Keywords: dam failure; hydraulic modeling; HEC-RAS; hazard map; flooding event (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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