Drivers of Population Dynamics in High-Altitude Counties of Sichuan Province, China

Xiangyu Dong (), Mengge Du and Shichen Zhao ()
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Xiangyu Dong: Graduate School of Human-Environment Studies, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan
Mengge Du: College of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Shichen Zhao: Faculty of Human Environment Studies, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-25

Abstract: The population dynamics of high-altitude mountainous areas are shaped by a complex interplay of socioeconomic and environmental drivers. Despite their significance, such regions have received limited scholarly attention. This research identifies and examines the principal determinants of population changes in the high-altitude mountainous zones of Sichuan Province, China. Utilizing a robust quantitative framework, we introduce the Sustainable Population Migration Index (SPMI) to systematically analyze the migration potential over two decades. The findings indicate healthcare accessibility as the most significant determinant influencing resident and rural population changes, while economic factors notably impact urban populations. The SPMI reveals a pronounced deterioration in migration attractiveness, decreasing by 0.27 units on average from 2010 to 2020. Furthermore, a fixed-effects panel regression confirmed the predictive capability of SPMI regarding population trends, emphasizing its value for demographic forecasting. We also develop a Digital Twin-based Simulation and Decision-support Platform (DTSDP) to visualize policy impacts effectively. Scenario simulations suggest that targeted enhancements in healthcare and infrastructure could significantly alleviate demographic pressures. This research contributes critical insights for sustainable regional development strategies and provides an effective tool for informed policymaking.

Keywords: population change; driving forces; high-altitude mountainous areas; sustainable population migration index; digital twin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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