Assessing Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Central Ethiopia: Implications for Agricultural Resilience and Future Climate Projections

Teshome Girma Tesema (), Nigussie Dechassa Robi, Kibebew Kibret Tsehai, Yibekal Alemayehu Abebe and Feyera Merga Liben
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Teshome Girma Tesema: College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Nigussie Dechassa Robi: Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Addis Ababa P.O Box 2003, Ethiopia
Kibebew Kibret Tsehai: College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Yibekal Alemayehu Abebe: College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Feyera Merga Liben: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Lilongwe P.O. Box 158, Malawi

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-30

Abstract: In the past three decades, localized research has highlighted shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature trends in central Ethiopia, a region vital for agriculture and economic activities and heavily dependent on climate conditions to sustain livelihoods and ensure food security. However, comprehensive analyses of long-term climate data remain limited for this area. Understanding local climate trends is essential for enhancing agricultural resilience in the study area, a region heavily dependent on rainfall for crop production. This study analyzes historical rainfall and temperature patterns over the past 30 years and projects future climate conditions using downscaled CMIP6 models under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate spatial variability in rainfall trends, with certain areas showing increasing rainfall while others experience declines. Temperature has shown a consistent upward trend across all seasons, with more pronounced warming during the short rainy season (Belg). Climate projections suggest continued warming and moderate increases in annual rainfall, particularly under SSP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It is concluded that both temperature and rainfall are projected to increase in magnitude by 2080, with higher Sen’s slope values compared to earlier periods, indicating a continued upward trend. These findings highlight potential breaks in agricultural calendars, such as shifts in rainfall onset and cessation, shortened or extended growing seasons, and increased risk of temperature-induced stress. This study highlights the need for localized adaptation strategies to safeguard agriculture production and enhance resilience in the face of future climate variability.

Keywords: climate change; climate projection; Mann–Kendall test; spatio-temporal dynamics; central Ethiopia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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