Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan

Sanim Bissenbayeva, Dana Shokparova (), Jilili Abuduwaili, Alim Samat, Long Ma and Yongxiao Ge
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Sanim Bissenbayeva: Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Dana Shokparova: Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Jilili Abuduwaili: China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Alim Samat: China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Long Ma: China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
Yongxiao Ge: China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Technology and Application, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-17

Abstract: This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification.

Keywords: aridity index; climate change; Central Kazakhstan; spatiotemporal variation; drought (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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