Staying or Leaving a Shrinking City: Migration Intentions of Creative Youth in Erzurum, Eastern Türkiye

Defne Dursun () and Doğan Dursun
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Defne Dursun: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Atatürk University, Erzurum 25240, Türkiye
Doğan Dursun: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Atatürk University, Erzurum 25240, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-22

Abstract: This study explores the migration intentions of university students—representing the potential creative class—in Erzurum, a medium-sized city in eastern Turkey experiencing shrinkage. Within the theoretical framework of shrinking cities, it investigates how economic, social, physical, and personal factors influence students’ post-graduation stay or leave decisions. Survey data from 742 Architecture and Fine Arts students at Atatürk University were analyzed using factor analysis, logistic regression, and correlation to identify key migration drivers. Findings reveal that, in addition to economic concerns such as limited job opportunities and low income, personal development opportunities and social engagement also play a decisive role. In particular, the perception of limited chances for skill enhancement and the belief that Erzurum is not a good place to meet people emerged as the strongest predictors of migration intentions. These results suggest that members of the creative class are influenced not only by economic incentives but also by broader urban experiences related to self-growth and social connectivity. This study highlights spatial inequalities in access to cultural, educational, and social infrastructure, raising important questions about spatial justice in shrinking urban contexts. This paper contributes to the literature on shrinking cities by highlighting creative youth in mid-sized Global South cities. It suggests smart shrinkage strategies focused on creative sector development, improved quality of life, and inclusive planning to retain young talent and support sustainable urban revitalization.

Keywords: shrinking cities; creative youth; migration; urban planning; Erzurum; smart shrinkage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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