Land Use Conflict Under Different Scenarios Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of the Development Pilot Zone in Jilin, China

Shengyue Zhang, Yanjun Zhang (), Xiaomeng Wang and Yuefen Li
Additional contact information
Shengyue Zhang: College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China
Yanjun Zhang: College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China
Xiaomeng Wang: College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China
Yuefen Li: College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-37

Abstract: In rapidly urbanizing regions, escalating land use conflicts have raised concerns over sustainable development and ecological security. This study focuses on the Chang-Ji-Tu Development and Opening Pilot Zone in Jilin Province, aiming to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts and identify their driving factors, based on land use data from 2000 to 2023. The study employs land use data, the PLUS model, SCCI, and the geographic detector to analyze conflict dynamics and influencing factors. Cropland and forest land have steadily declined, while construction land has expanded. Conflicts exhibit a spatial gradient of “western pressure, central alleviation, and eastern stability,” with hotspots in Changchun, Jilin, and Yanji. Conflict evolution is categorized into three phases: intensification (2000–2010), peak (2010–2015), and mitigation (2015–2023), as shaped by industrialization and later policy interventions. Among four simulated scenarios, the Sustainable Development (SD) scenario most effectively postpones conflict escalation. Population density and DEM emerged as dominant driving factors. Natural factors have greater explanatory power for land use conflicts than do socio-economic or locational factors. Strengthening spatial planning coordination and refining conflict governance are key to balancing human–environment interactions in the region.

Keywords: land use conflict; PLUS model; spatial comprehensive conflict index (SCCI); sustainable development; Chang-Ji-Tu (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/7161/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/7161/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:7161-:d:1719777

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().