Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education

Shanshan Li (), Shoubin Li, Jing Li, Liang Yuan and Jichao Geng
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Shanshan Li: School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232000, China
Shoubin Li: School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232000, China
Jing Li: School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232000, China
Liang Yuan: Joint National-Local Engineering Research Centre for Safe and Precise Coal Mining, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Jichao Geng: School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-20

Abstract: China’s carbon peak and neutrality transition is critically constrained by the severe talent shortage and structural inefficiencies in higher education. This study systematically investigates the current status of “dual-carbon” talent cultivation and demand in China, leveraging annual “dual-carbon” talent cultivation data from universities nationwide. By applying the GM(1,1)-ARIMA hybrid forecasting model, it projects future national “dual-carbon” talent demand. Key findings reveal significant regional disparities in talent cultivation, with a pronounced mismatch between industrial demands and academic supply, particularly in interdisciplinary roles pivotal to decarbonization processes. Forecast results indicate an exponential growth in postgraduate talent demand, outpacing undergraduate demand, thereby underscoring the urgency of advancing high-end technological research and development. Through empirical analysis and innovative modeling, this study uncovers the structural contradictions between “dual-carbon” talent cultivation and market demands in China, providing critical decision-making insights to address the bottleneck of carbon-neutral talent development.

Keywords: dual-carbon talents; status of training; demand for talent; forecasting and analysis; GM(1,1)-ARIMA hybrid model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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