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Application of an Integrated DEMATEL-ISM-BN and Gray Clustering Model to Budget Quota Consumption Analysis in High-Standard Farmland Projects

Jiaze Li, Xuenan Li, Kun Han and Chunsheng Li ()
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Jiaze Li: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Xuenan Li: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Kun Han: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Chunsheng Li: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-26

Abstract: To overcome the absence of a standardized budget quota system for high-standard farmland projects and the resultant extended compilation cycles and high workloads, this study systematically analyzes quota consumption and innovatively proposes an integrated DEMATEL-ISM-BN and gray clustering analytical model. Through a literature review and engineering feature analysis, a hierarchical factor system was established, encompassing six dimensions (environmental, technical, labor, machinery, material, and management) and 24 indicators. The DEMATEL-ISM method quantified factor weights and structured them into a five-level hierarchy, while Bayesian networks (BNs) enabled probabilistic productivity predictions (29% conservative, 45% moderate, and 26% advanced). Gray clustering was integrated to derive a comprehensive representative consumption value, and validation across six regions demonstrated a comprehensive productivity index of 0.986 (CV = 2.6%) for 17 earthwork projects, confirming model robustness. This research constructs a standardized “factor structure analysis–probabilistic deduction–regional clustering” framework, providing a theoretical foundation for precise budget compilation in high-standard farmland and proposing a novel methodological paradigm for quota consumption research.

Keywords: high-standard farmland projects; quota productivity levels; quota consumption; DEMATEL-ISM-BN; Gray clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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