Determinants and Prediction Model for Rural Bank Sustainability in Indonesia Post-COVID-19

Devy Mawarnie Puspitasari (), Jacky Chin and Sunita Dasman
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Devy Mawarnie Puspitasari: Department of Economics and Business, Universitas Mercu Buana, Jakarta 11650, Indonesia
Jacky Chin: Department of Engineering, Universitas Mercu Buana, Jakarta 11650, Indonesia
Sunita Dasman: Department of Economics and Business, Universitas Pelita Bangsa, Bekasi 17530, Indonesia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-19

Abstract: This study investigates the key risk factors influencing the sustainability of rural banks in Indonesia following the COVID-19 pandemic. It develops a predictive model of rural bank sustainability using logistic regression analysis. The analysis identifies seven statistically significant financial indicators, and among the three models proposed, Model 3 demonstrates the highest predictive accuracy, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Robustness tests confirm the reliability of this model. The findings highlight the importance for rural banks to improve their financial management, particularly in liquidity, credit expansion, and operational efficiency, to achieve long-term sustainability in a post-crisis economic landscape.

Keywords: sustainability; rural banks; Post-COVID-19; risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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