How Does Global Supply Chain Pressure Affect Oil Prices in Futures Markets?

Cong Yu, Dongdan Jiao (), Yuchen Wei and Qi Wang
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Cong Yu: School of Finance, Tongling University, Tongling 244061, China
Dongdan Jiao: China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
Yuchen Wei: School of International Trade and Economics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China
Qi Wang: School of International Trade and Economics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-21

Abstract: The rise in global supply chain pressure (GSCP) not only disturbs global sustainable development but also affects commodity prices. In this study, taking crude oil as an example, we use data from 1998 to 2024 and employ a structural VAR model to explore this effect. The empirical findings reveal that after a positive GSCP shock, crude oil prices rose immediately before the outbreak of global trade tensions in 2018. After 2018, however, prices decreased initially and then increased again about two months later. This response heterogeneity is primarily related to differences in the key drivers of GSCP between two periods.

Keywords: global supply chain pressure; crude oil; global trade tension; COVID-19 pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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