Comparative Analysis of PM 2.5 - and O 3 -Attributable Impacts in China: Changing Trends and Driving Factors

Tong Gao ()
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Tong Gao: School of Management, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-23

Abstract: China’s divergent fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and surface ozone (O 3 ) pollution trends pose critical threats to sustainable development. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of health burdens (premature deaths) and economic costs across 333 cities during 2015–2023, integrating the Global Exposure Mortality Model (for PM 2.5 ) and Log-linear Exposure-Response Model (for O 3 ) with income- and age-adjusted Value of Statistical Life. The results revealed an 11% decrease in PM 2.5 -attributable premature deaths, but this benefit was partially offset (60%) by an 87% increase in O 3 -related deaths. Furthermore, the per capita economic loss from O 3 exposure increased by 154%, far exceeding China’s 79% growth in per capita disposable income. Decomposition analysis revealed that while diverging exposure levels primarily drove differential PM 2.5 - and O 3 -related impacts, this disparity was significantly amplified by population aging. These findings underscore the need for air quality strategies to both sustain PM 2.5 reduction achievements and implement rigorous O 3 controls, while integrating pollution considerations into public health frameworks with special emphasis on protecting vulnerable populations.

Keywords: air pollution; health impact; economic loss; driving factor; population aging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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