Statistical Characteristics of Hourly Extreme Heavy Rainfall over the Loess Plateau, China: A 43 Year Study

Hui Yuan, Fan Hu, Wei Zhang, Xiaokai Meng, Yuan Gao and Shenming Fu ()
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Hui Yuan: State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Research Institute, Taiyuan 030001, China
Fan Hu: State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Taiyuan 030021, China
Wei Zhang: State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Taiyuan 030021, China
Xiaokai Meng: State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Research Institute, Taiyuan 030001, China
Yuan Gao: Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Shenming Fu: Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 16, 1-18

Abstract: The Loess Plateau, possessing the world’s most extensive loess deposits, is highly vulnerable to accelerated soil erosion and vegetation loss triggered by extreme hourly rainfall (EHR) events due to the inherently erodible nature of its porous, weakly cemented sediment structure. EHR exacerbates soil erosion, induces flash flooding, compromises power infrastructure, and jeopardizes agricultural productivity. Through analysis of 43 years (1981–2023) of station observational data and ERA5 reanalysis, we present the first comprehensive assessment of EHR characteristics across the plateau. Results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with southeastern regions exhibiting higher EHR intensity thresholds and frequency compared to northwestern areas. EHR frequency correlates positively with elevation, while intensity decreases with altitude, demonstrating orographic modulation. Synoptic-scale background environment of EHR events is characterized by upper-level divergence, mid-tropospheric warm advection, and lower-tropospheric convergence, all of which are linked to summer monsoon systems. Temporally, EHR peaks in July during the East Asian summer monsoon and exhibits a bimodal diurnal cycle (0700/1700 LST). Long-term trends reveal a significant overall increase in the frequency of EHR events (~0.82 events a −1 ). While an overall increase in EHR intensity is also observed, it fails to achieve statistical significance due to opposing regional signals. Collectively, these trends elevate the risks of slope failures and debris flows. Our findings highlight three priority interventions: (i) implementation of elevation-adapted early warning systems, (ii) targeted agricultural soil conservation practices, and (iii) climate-resilient infrastructure design for high-risk valleys—all essential for safeguarding this ecologically sensitive region against intensifying hydroclimatic extremes.

Keywords: extreme precipitation; Loess Plateau; hourly rainfall; long-term trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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