Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Eco-Environmental Quality and Driving Factors in China’s Three-North Shelter Forest Program Using GEE and GIS

Lina Jiang, Jinning Zhang, Shaojie Wang, Jingbo Zhang and Xinle Li ()
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Lina Jiang: Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Jinning Zhang: Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Shaojie Wang: Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Jingbo Zhang: Experimental Center of Desert Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Bayannur 015200, China
Xinle Li: Experimental Center of Desert Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Bayannur 015200, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-22

Abstract: The long-term sustainability of conservation efforts in critical reforestation regions requires timely, spatiotemporal assessments of ecological quality. In alignment with China’s environmental initiatives, this study integrates Google Earth Engine (GEE) and MODIS data to construct an enhanced Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) for two decades of ecological monitoring. Hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) revealed concentrated high-quality zones, particularly in Xinjiang’s Altay Prefecture, with ‘Good’ and ‘Excellent’ areas increasing from 21.64% in 2000 to 31.30% in 2020. To uncover driving forces, partial correlation and geographic detector analyses identified a transition in the Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) from climate–topography constraints to land use–climate synergy, with land use emerging as the dominant factor. Socioeconomic influences, shaped by policy interventions, also played an important but fluctuating role. This progression—from natural constraints to active human regulation—underscores the need for climate-adaptive land use, balanced ecological–economic development, and region-specific governance. These findings validate the effectiveness of current conservation strategies and provide guidance for sustaining ecological progress and optimizing future development in the TNSFP.

Keywords: ecological quality assessment; Three-North Shelter Forest Program; spatiotemporal analysis; geographical detector analysis; Google Earth Engine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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