Multiple Hazards and Economic Resilience: Sectoral Impacts and Post-Disaster Recovery in a High-Risk Brazilian State

Jorge Luis Tonetto (), Josep Miquel Pique and Carina Rapetti
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Jorge Luis Tonetto: La Salle Campus Barcelona, Ramon Llull University, 08022 Barcelona, Spain
Josep Miquel Pique: La Salle Campus Barcelona, Ramon Llull University, 08022 Barcelona, Spain
Carina Rapetti: La Salle Campus Barcelona, Ramon Llull University, 08022 Barcelona, Spain

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-21

Abstract: Rio Grande do Sul accounts for 22% of Brazil’s losses from extreme events, mainly droughts and floods. The state had the second-worst economic performance in the country between 2000 and 2022. This study quantifies the impacts of major events such as droughts, floods, and the COVID-19 pandemic on economic sectors. Three methods were applied: structural breaks, recovery time, and sector-specific loss estimates. The analysis covers 15,365,123 observations of monthly invoice values from January 2017 to April 2025, involving 357,001 companies paying value-added tax on consumption. The results indicate that negative structural breaks occurred in a few sectors, which account for 5% of the state’s economy. The recovery time followed a similar trajectory between droughts and COVID-19. On average, sectors took 12 months to recover from COVID-19, compared with about 6 months for natural hazards. The sectors most impacted were travel, artistic activities, machinery and equipment industry, accommodation, and domestic services. Aggregated loss estimates were highest during the COVID-19 pandemic (−8%), followed by floods (−1%) and droughts (0%). The results indicate remarkable overall short-run economic resilience. Furthermore, sectors such as information technology, consulting, business services, and healthcare performed exceptionally well.

Keywords: natural hazards and sustainability; multiple hazards assessment; post-disaster recovery; economic resilience; regional development planning and policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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