Spatiotemporal Analysis, Driving Force, and Simulation of Urban Expansion Along the Ethio–Djibouti Trade Corridor: The Cases of Dire Dawa City, Eastern Ethiopia

Abduselam Mohamed Ebrahim (), Abenezer Wakuma Kitila, Tegegn Sishaw Emiru and Solomon Asfaw Beza
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Abduselam Mohamed Ebrahim: School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Haramaya University, Haramaya P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Abenezer Wakuma Kitila: School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Haramaya University, Haramaya P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Tegegn Sishaw Emiru: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 16417, Ethiopia
Solomon Asfaw Beza: School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Haramaya University, Haramaya P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-23

Abstract: Urbanization has emerged as one of the most significant global challenges and opportunities of the 21st century, driven by a complex interplay of dynamic processes. In Ethiopia, cities have undergone rapid expansion in recent decades, largely due to state-led economic reforms and infrastructure development. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics, driving forces, and future projections of urban expansion along the Ethio–Djibouti trade corridor, with a focus on Dire Dawa City in eastern Ethiopia. Landsat imagery from 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 was utilized to detect land use and land cover (LULC) changes and analyze urban growth patterns. Additionally, maps illustrating the city’s demographic, economic, and topographic characteristics were developed to identify the key driving factors behind land conversion and urban expansion. The spatial matrix and landscape expansion index were employed to examine the spatial patterns of urban growth. Furthermore, the study applied the Multi-Layer Perceptron–Markov Chain (MLP–MC) model to simulate future LULC changes and urban expansion. The results indicate that the built-up area in Dire Dawa has increased significantly over the past three decades, growing from 6.21 km 2 in 1993 to 21.54 km 2 in 2023. This urban growth is predominantly characterized by edge expansion, reflecting a pattern of unidirectional, unsustainable development that has consumed large areas of agricultural land. The analysis shows that socioeconomic development and population growth have had a greater influence on LULC conversion and urban expansion than physical factors. Based on these identified drivers, the study projected land conversion and simulated urban expansion for the years 2043 and 2064. The findings underscore the urgent need for context-sensitive urban growth strategies that harmonize local realities with national development policies and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Keywords: Dire Dawa; Ethio–Djibouti corridor; driving force; urban expansion MLP–MC model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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