Carbon Capture in Indonesia’s Energy Sector: A Least-Cost Optimization Approach

Anindhita (), Joko Santosa and Koji Tokimatsu
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Anindhita: Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Institute of Science Tokyo, G5-10, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8503, Japan
Joko Santosa: Directorate of Environment, Maritime, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Policy, National Research and Innovation Agency, B.J. Habibie Building, M.H. Thamrin No. 8, Central Jakarta 10340, Indonesia
Koji Tokimatsu: Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Institute of Science Tokyo, G5-10, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8503, Japan

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-25

Abstract: Indonesia’s power sector is heavily reliant on coal, making it a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study evaluates the role of carbon capture (CC) as a transitional mitigation strategy using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) for least-cost optimization. Five scenarios up to 2060 are assessed: Business as Usual (BAU), a renewables-only pathway (NRE), two carbon-capture strategies (CALL and CNEW), and a hybrid scenario (COMB). Results show that NRE eliminates fossil power plants but increases system costs by 3.2% and raises reliability challenges due to the variability of solar generation. CALL achieves the lowest abatement cost (USD 0.93/tCO 2 e) but leaves 105 Mt CO 2 e residual emissions by 2060. COMB provides the most balanced outcome, cutting emissions by 96% (40 Mt CO 2 e), increasing costs by only 1.9%, and ensuring energy security by combining CC with renewable expansion. These findings highlight that a hybrid strategy offers a pragmatic, least-cost pathway for Indonesia to align its power sector with net-zero targets while maintaining grid adequacy.

Keywords: carbon capture; energy system modeling; emission reduction cost; net-zero emissions; power sector optimization; renewable energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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