Techno-Economic Assessment of Marine Fuels for Container Ships: A Net Present Value-Based Investment Analysis

Burak Göksu, Berk Yıldız () and Metin Danış
Additional contact information
Burak Göksu: Department of Marine Engineering, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak 67300, Türkiye
Berk Yıldız: Department of Maritime Business Administration, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak 67300, Türkiye
Metin Danış: Department of Maritime and Port Management, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak 67300, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-22

Abstract: This study evaluates the financial viability of different main engine–fuel configurations for a container vessel on a standardized Trans-Pacific route. Using Net Present Value (NPV) analysis over a 10 year evaluation period (2024–2033), it compares six propulsion scenarios, combining three Wärtsilä engine types and four fuel alternatives (HFO, LFO, LNG, Methanol). The framework integrates technical parameters, including engine power and fuel consumption, with financial instruments such as the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Results show that the LNG-powered Wärtsilä 8V31DF achieves the highest NPV. Despite requiring the highest initial capital expenditure (CAPEX), this configuration delivers superior financial performance and remains robust under volatile market conditions. Sensitivity tests with ±20% freight–fuel shocks and alternative discount rates (5%, 7.18%, 10%) confirm that the relative ranking of propulsion options is stable. Methanol yields negative NPVs under current prices but could become competitive with bio-methanol cost reductions or strong carbon pricing. Limitations include constant non-fuel OPEX, fixed sea state, and the exclusion of explicit carbon price scenarios. From a policy perspective, LNG appears most viable in the short term, while long-term strategies should consider ammonia and hydrogen in line with IMO decarbonization pathways.

Keywords: fuel consumption modeling; marine propulsion; NPV analysis; shipping investment analysis; techno-economic evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/17/7967/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/17/7967/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:17:p:7967-:d:1741912

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().