Advancing Sustainability and Resilience in Vulnerable Rural and Coastal Communities Facing Environmental Change with a Regionally Focused Composite Mapping Framework

Thomas O’Shea (), Dónall Cross, Mark G. Macklin and Chris Thomas
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Thomas O’Shea: School of Science Engineering and The Environment, University of Salford, Salford M5 4WT, UK
Dónall Cross: Department of Life Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3FL, UK
Mark G. Macklin: College of Health and Science, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK
Chris Thomas: College of Health and Science, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-25

Abstract: Rural and coastal communities in areas of socio-economic deprivation face increasing exposure to compound climate-related hazards, including flooding, erosion and extreme heat. Effective adaptation planning in these contexts requires approaches that integrate physical hazard modelling with measures of social vulnerability in a transparent and reproducible way. This study develops and applies the Adaptive and Resilient Rural-Coastal Communities in Lincolnshire (ARRCC-L) framework, a sequential process combining data collation, two-dimensional hydraulic simulation using LISFLOOD-FP, and composite vulnerability mapping. The framework is versioned and protocolised to support replication, and is applied to Lincolnshire, UK, integrating UKCP18 climate projections, high-resolution flood models, infrastructure accessibility data and deprivation indices to generate multi-scenario flood exposure assessments for 2020–2100. The findings demonstrate how open, reproducible modelling can underpin inclusive stakeholder engagement and inform equitable adaptation strategies. By situating hazard analysis within a socio-economic context, the ARRCC-L framework offers a transferable decision support tool for embedding resilience considerations into regional planning, supporting both local adaptation measures and national risk governance.

Keywords: coastal resilience; composite vulnerability mapping; flood-exposure modelling; equitable adaptation planning; stakeholder driven frameworks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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