A Load Forecasting Model Based on Spatiotemporal Partitioning and Cross-Regional Attention Collaboration

Xun Dou, Ruiang Yang, Zhenlan Dou, Chunyan Zhang, Chen Xu and Jiacheng Li ()
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Xun Dou: College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Ruiang Yang: College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Zhenlan Dou: State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200122, China
Chunyan Zhang: State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200122, China
Chen Xu: State Grid Integrated Energy Service Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100052, China
Jiacheng Li: College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 18, 1-22

Abstract: With the advancement of new power system construction, thermostatically controlled loads represented by regional air conditioning systems are being extensively integrated into the grid, leading to a surge in the number of user nodes. This large-scale integration of new loads creates challenges for the grid, as the resulting load data exhibits strong periodicity and randomness over time. These characteristics are influenced by factors like temperature and user behavior. At the same time, spatially adjacent nodes show similarities and clustering in electricity usage. This creates complex spatiotemporal coupling features. These complex spatiotemporal characteristics challenge traditional forecasting methods. Their high model complexity and numerous parameters often lead to overfitting or the curse of dimensionality, which hinders both prediction accuracy and efficiency. To address this issue, this paper proposes a load forecasting method based on spatiotemporal partitioning and collaborative cross-regional attention. First, a spatiotemporal similarity matrix is constructed using the Shape Dynamic Time Warping (ShapeDTW) algorithm and an adaptive Gaussian kernel function based on the Haversine distance. Spectral clustering combined with the Gap Statistic criterion is then applied to adaptively determine the optimal number of partitions, dividing all load nodes in the power grid into several sub-regions with homogeneous spatiotemporal characteristics. Second, for each sub-region, a local Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network (STGCN) model is built. By integrating gated temporal convolution with spatial feature extraction, the model accurately captures the spatiotemporal evolution patterns within each sub-region. On this basis, a cross-regional attention mechanism is designed to dynamically learn the correlation weights among sub-regions, enabling collaborative fusion of global features. Finally, the proposed method is evaluated on a multi-node load dataset. The effectiveness of the approach is validated through comparative experiments and ablation studies (that is, by removing key components of the model to evaluate their contribution to the overall performance). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves excellent performance in short-term load forecasting tasks across multiple nodes.

Keywords: multi-node power load; spatiotemporal similarity matrix; spatiotemporal partitioning; cross-regional attention mechanism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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