Drivers of Global Wheat and Corn Price Dynamics: Implications for Sustainable Food Systems

Yuliia Zolotnytska, Stanisław Kowalczyk, Roman Sobiecki, Vitaliy Krupin (), Julian Krzyżanowski, Aleksandra Perkowska and Joanna Żurakowska-Sawa
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Yuliia Zolotnytska: Institute of Markets and Competition, Warsaw School of Economics, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland
Stanisław Kowalczyk: Institute of Markets and Competition, Warsaw School of Economics, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland
Roman Sobiecki: Institute of Markets and Competition, Warsaw School of Economics, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland
Vitaliy Krupin: Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-330 Warsaw, Poland
Julian Krzyżanowski: Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics, National Research Institute, 00-002 Warsaw, Poland
Aleksandra Perkowska: Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-330 Warsaw, Poland
Joanna Żurakowska-Sawa: Faculty of Economic Sciences, John Paul II University in Biała Podlaska, 21-500 Biała Podlaska, Poland

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-19

Abstract: Globalisation, population growth, climate change, and energy-policy shifts have deepened interdependence between agri-food and energy systems, amplifying price volatility. This study examines the determinants of global wheat and corn price dynamics over 2000–2023, emphasising energy markets (oil and biofuels), agronomic and climatic factors, population pressure, and cross-market interdependencies. Using multiple linear regression with backward selection on annual global data from official sources (FAO, USDA, EIA and market series), we quantify the relative contributions of these drivers. The models explain most of the variation in world prices (R 2 = 0.89 for wheat; 0.92 for corn). Oil prices are a dominant covariate: a 1 USD/barrel increase in Brent is associated with a 1.33 USD/t rise in the wheat price, while a 1 USD/t increase in the corn price raises the wheat price by 0.54 USD/t. Lower biodiesel output per million people is linked to higher wheat prices (+0.67 USD/t), underscoring the role of biofuel supply conditions. We also document an asymmetric yield effect—higher yields correlate positively with wheat prices but negatively with corn—consistent with crop-specific market mechanisms. Although temperature and precipitation were excluded from the regressions due to collinearity, their strong correlations with yields and biofuel activity signal continuing climate risk. The contribution of this study lies in integrating energy, climate, and agricultural market factors within a single empirical framework, offering evidence of their joint role in shaping staple grain prices. These findings add to the literature on food–energy linkages and provide insights for sustainability policies, particularly the design of integrated energy–agriculture strategies and risk-management instruments to enhance resilience in global food systems.

Keywords: global wheat price; global corn price; price dynamics; econometric modelling; agricultural markets; energy markets; oil prices; climate variability; yield dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8581-:d:1757362

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