Unveiling Tipping Points in European Sustainability: A Nonlinear MARS Approach to People, Planet, and Prosperity

Oksana Liashenko (), Olena Pavlova, Kostiantyn Pavlov (), Tomasz Lechowicz, Robert Szarota, Maryna Nagara and Nataliia Hrytsiyk
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Oksana Liashenko: Loughborough Business School, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Olena Pavlova: Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave 13, 43025 Lutsk, Ukraine
Kostiantyn Pavlov: Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave 13, 43025 Lutsk, Ukraine
Tomasz Lechowicz: School of Business, National-Louis University in Nowy Sącz, Grunwaldzka 17, 33-300 Nowy Sącz, Poland
Robert Szarota: School of Business, National-Louis University in Nowy Sącz, Grunwaldzka 17, 33-300 Nowy Sącz, Poland
Maryna Nagara: B.D. Havrylyshyn Educational and Research Institute of International Relations, West Ukrainian National University, Lvivska str., 11, 46009 Ternopil, Ukraine
Nataliia Hrytsiyk: School of Management, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-21

Abstract: This study investigates sustainable development in Europe, moving beyond simple SDG scores and linear models. Using data from 2000 to 2024 across European countries, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to create indices for the People, Planet, and Prosperity domains of sustainable development. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARSs) captured nonlinearities and interactions in the influence of these domains on sustainable development on the European continent. The results show that progress depends on crossing key thresholds rather than gradual change. In the People domain, exceeding minimum levels leads to significant gains. The Planet domain acts as both stabiliser and constraint: moderate ecological performance fosters progress, while extremes hinder it. Prosperity has modest direct effects but becomes influential when combined with social and environmental factors. Interactions reveal that sustainable development arises from domain synergies, with social progress offering the most significant leverage. The findings indicate the need to target lagging regions to surpass social thresholds, protect ecological stability, and ground prosperity in inclusive, eco-friendly frameworks. Overall, the study highlights how data-driven methods can identify tipping points in sustainability and provides a transferable framework for achieving the 2030 Agenda.

Keywords: sustainable development goals; Europe; thresholds; multivariate adaptive regression splines; people–planet–prosperity; nonlinear modelling; policy leverage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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