Quantifying the Contribution of Driving Factors on Distribution and Change in Vegetation NPP in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, China

Zhuang Li, Hongwei Liu (), Jinjie Miao, Yaonan Bai, Bo Han, Danhong Xu, Fengtian Yang and Yubo Xia
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Zhuang Li: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China
Hongwei Liu: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China
Jinjie Miao: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China
Yaonan Bai: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China
Bo Han: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China
Danhong Xu: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China
Fengtian Yang: Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
Yubo Xia: Tianjin Center, China Geological Survey (North China Center for Geoscience Innovation of China Geological Survey), No. 4 Dazhigu 8th Road, Tianjin 300170, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-21

Abstract: As a fundamental metric for assessing carbon sequestration, Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and the mechanisms driving its spatiotemporal dynamics constitute a critical research domain within global change science. This research centered on the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain (HHHP), combining 2001–2023 MODIS-NPP data with natural (landform, temperature, precipitation, soil) and socio-economic (population density, GDP density, land use) drivers. Trend analysis, coefficient of variation, and Hurst index were applied to clarify the spatiotemporal evolution of NPP and its future trends, while geographic detectors and structural equation models were used to quantify the contribution of drivers. Key findings: (1) Across the HHHP, the multi-year average NPP ranged between 30.05 and 1019.76 gC·m −2 ·a −1 , with higher values found in Shandong and Henan provinces, and lower values concentrated in the northwestern dam-top plateau and central plain regions; 44.11% of the entire region showed a statistically highly significant increasing trend. (2) The overall fluctuation of NPP was low-amplitude, with a stable center of gravity and the standard deviation ellipse retaining a southwest-to-northeast direction. (3) Future changes in NPP exhibited persistence and anti-persistence, with 44.98% of the region being confronted with vegetation degradation risk. (4) NPP variations originated from the synergistic impacts of multiple elements: among individual elements, precipitation, soil type, and elevation had the highest explanatory capacity, while synergistic interactions between two elements notably enhanced the explanatory capacity. (5) Climate variation exerted the strongest influence on NPP (direct coefficient of 0.743), followed by the basic natural environment (0.734), whereas human-related activities had the weakest direct impact (−0.098). This research offers scientific backing for regional carbon sink evaluation, ecological security early warning, and sustainable development policies.

Keywords: Net Primary Productivity; spatiotemporal evolution patterns; future trends; driving factors; Huang–Huai–Hai Plain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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