Research on Load Forecasting of County Power Grid Planning Based on Dual-Period Evaluation Function

Jingyan Chen, Jingchun Feng (), Xu Chen and Song Xue
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Jingyan Chen: Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
Jingchun Feng: Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
Xu Chen: Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
Song Xue: Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 20, 1-22

Abstract: Load forecasting is a key component of power network planning and an essential approach to achieving the efficient cooperative optimization of integrated economic energy services. To improve the accuracy of the power load prediction and ensure the stable dispatch of power grid, this paper takes County A as a case study. The fish bone diagram method is applied to analyze the influence of four categories of factors on the county’s power load, and stepwise regression, the unit energy consumption method, and an optimized grey model are adopted to forecast and analyze the planned load of the county over the past 5 years. In addition, the spatial load density method, the optimized grey prediction model, and the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) are used to predict and analyze the county’s planned power grid load based on data from the past ten years. The Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operator is then applied to integrate the results, and the predictive performance of different methods is assessed with an evaluation function. The results show that this combined multi-method approach achieves a higher accuracy. It also accounts for the evolving political, economic, and social conditions of the country, making the predictions more useful for power grid planning. Based on these findings, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to support the improvement of spatial planning for electric power facilities in County A.

Keywords: load forecasting; OWA operator; evaluation function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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