Extreme Precipitation and Flood Hazard Assessment for Sustainable Climate Adaptation: A Case Study of Diyarbakır, Turkey

Berfin Kaya and Recep Çelik ()
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Berfin Kaya: Department of Civil Engineering, Dicle University, Diyarbakir 21280, Turkey
Recep Çelik: Department of Civil Engineering, Dicle University, Diyarbakir 21280, Turkey

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 20, 1-25

Abstract: This study investigates flood risk trends using rainfall data collected from 13 districts of Diyarbakır Province, Turkey, with a focus on supporting sustainability-oriented climate adaptation. Both annual and seasonal precipitation variations were examined, with particular emphasis on the role of maximum daily rainfall in driving flood potential. In addition, the analysis integrates extreme precipitation patterns with regional hazard characteristics to provide a more comprehensive flood risk assessment framework. Non-parametric statistical methods, including the Mann–Kendall trend test and Spearman’s Rho correlation, were applied to detect trends in annual and seasonal datasets. Flood magnitudes were estimated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approaches. The dataset covers varying periods between 2009 and 2023, depending on station availability. The results show a statistically significant increase in both annual and winter precipitation at Bismil, and a significant winter increase at Çermik. Other stations displayed upward trends that were not statistically significant. Çüngüş, Lice, and Kulp were identified as particularly susceptible to extreme rainfall. Although the relatively short observation period poses a limitation, consistent patterns of intensified precipitation were detected. Previous studies in Turkey have demonstrated that such events often cause severe infrastructure damage and displacement of vulnerable communities. The findings of this study provide practical insights for national and regional authorities, including the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), and the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, to strengthen sustainable climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction strategies. Overall, this research highlights the importance of integrating extreme precipitation analysis into sustainable flood management, resilient infrastructure development, and long-term sustainability policies, thereby reinforcing the connection between hydrological risk assessment and sustainability science.

Keywords: sustainable flood management; climate adaptation; precipitation trend; Mann–Kendall test; Spearman’s Rho; generalized extreme value; peaks over threshold (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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