Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Future Trajectories of Coupling Coordination Between Net Ecosystem Productivity and Human Activity Intensity: A Case Study of the Zhangjiakou–Chengde Region, Northern China

Ye Wang, Guoji Li, Yixiang Kan, Zhongcai Xue, Yue Yang and Anqi Ju ()
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Ye Wang: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Minzu Normal University, Chengde 067000, China
Guoji Li: Hebei Key Laboratory of Mountain Geological Environment, Chengde 067000, China
Yixiang Kan: Faculty of Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
Zhongcai Xue: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Minzu Normal University, Chengde 067000, China
Yue Yang: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Minzu Normal University, Chengde 067000, China
Anqi Ju: College of Beiyan Business, Hebei Minzu Normal University, Chengde 067000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-22

Abstract: Understanding the coordination between regional carbon sequestration and human activities is essential for achieving ecological sustainability and carbon neutrality. This study explored the spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and sustainability of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and human activity intensity (HAI) in the Zhangjiakou–Chengde (ZC) region of northern China from 2000 to 2023. NEP and HAI were integrated through a coupling coordination framework to assess their dynamic balance and relative development. Results show that the coordination between carbon sinks and human activities has improved continuously over the past two decades, shifting from human-dominated imbalance to a more synergistic pattern. Spatially, higher coordination levels were concentrated in forested mountain areas, while agricultural and transitional zones exhibited instability or lagging development. Land use regulation, vegetation recovery, and terrain conditions were identified as the primary factors shaping this pattern, with interaction effects amplifying spatial disparities. Trend analysis suggests that northeastern and eastern regions will likely sustain their positive trajectories, whereas the agro-pastoral transition belt remains vulnerable. These findings deepen understanding of carbon–human interactions in fragile ecosystems and provide scientific evidence for differentiated land management, ecological restoration, and carbon neutrality planning in northern China and similar regions worldwide.

Keywords: net ecosystem productivity (NEP); human activity intensity (HAI); coupling coordination degree; Geodetector; Mann–Kendall and Hurst analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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