Mapping Regional Flows: Supply Chain Pathways of Black Carbon Emissions in China

Shuangzhi Li, Kang Liu, Zhongci Deng (), Xili Yi, Linfeng Li, Dan Chen, Youquan Duan, Yujia Li and Yu Zhou
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Shuangzhi Li: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Kang Liu: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Zhongci Deng: College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 4300770, China
Xili Yi: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Linfeng Li: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Dan Chen: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Youquan Duan: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Yujia Li: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China
Yu Zhou: Suining Flight College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Suining 629000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-16

Abstract: As the world’s largest anthropogenic emitter of black carbon (BC), China exhibits substantial regional disparities in emissions. This study integrates provincial data into an endogenized multi-regional input–output (MRIO) framework and applies structural path analysis (SPA) to trace embodied BC emissions across 30 Chinese regions throughout the full economic cycle. The results indicate that Southern China is the region with the highest emissions (191.85 Kt), while the northwest region, despite having the lowest absolute emissions, exhibits the highest emission intensity (9.59 kg per 10 5 CNY). Only 8.94% and 15.66% of the BC emissions linked to Shanghai and Beijing were produced locally, compared to 79.23% for Shandong and 79.21% for Hebei. Most BC emissions in the supply chain originate from direct emissions by the residential sector, followed by indirect emissions from carbon-intensive industries such as construction. This pattern reflects a mechanism whereby final demand in developed provinces stimulates economic output in less developed provinces, thereby driving BC emissions there. These findings highlight the need for differentiated regional mitigation strategies—such as residential clean energy transitions in underdeveloped regions and sustainable supply chain management in developed ones—to advance national sustainability goals.

Keywords: black carbon emissions; endogenous multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model; structural path analysis (SPA); provincial level (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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