Integrating Social–Ecological Systems and Megatrends: A Participatory Foresight Framework for Sustainability Governance in European Cold Lands

Rocco Scolozzi (), Marta Villa () and Mario Giagnorio
Additional contact information
Rocco Scolozzi: -skopìa Anticipation Services, 38122 Trento, Italy
Marta Villa: Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, 38122 Trento, Italy
Mario Giagnorio: Faculty of Law, University of Trento, 38122 Trento, Italy

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-20

Abstract: Mountainous and sparsely populated regions in Europe—here called “cold lands”—are particularly exposed to global megatrends such as climate change, demographic shifts, and economic restructuring. Addressing these interconnected challenges requires approaches that link foresight with local governance systems. This study presents a pilot methodological framework that integrates Ostrom’s Social-Ecological Systems (SES) model with the European Commission’s Megatrend Assessment method to support participatory foresight. The framework was tested in two illustrative cases, located in the Italian Alps and Norway, to demonstrate its feasibility and potential value. Through a structured discussion among researchers, key megatrends were prioritised, and qualitative scenarios were developed to explore how community preparedness can influence socio-ecological outcomes. The results highlight climate change, resource scarcity, and demographic imbalances as dominant drivers, while contrasting scenarios illustrate how proactive governance can mitigate vulnerability and foster adaptive capacity. The approach contributes a replicable and scalable foresight tool to bridge global trends and local sustainability strategies, supporting anticipatory and community-based governance in vulnerable territories.

Keywords: Arctic; Alps; collective resources; anticipatory governance; environmental assessment; rural communities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/21/9644/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/21/9644/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:21:p:9644-:d:1782940

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().