A Spatiotemporal Forecasting Method for Cooling Load of Chillers Based on Patch-Specific Dynamic Filtering

Jie Li, Zhengri Jin () and Tao Wu
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Jie Li: School of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
Zhengri Jin: School of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
Tao Wu: School of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-23

Abstract: Accurate cooling load forecasting in chiller units is critical for building energy optimization, yet remains challenging due to non-stationary nonlinear dynamics driven by coupled external weather variability (solar radiation, ambient temperature) and internal thermal loads. Conventional models fail to capture the spatiotemporal coupling inherent in load time series, violating their stationarity assumptions. To address this, this research proposes OptiNet, a spatiotemporal forecasting framework integrating patch-specific dynamic filtering with graph neural networks. OptiNet partitions multi-sensor data into non-overlapping time patches to develop a dynamic spatiotemporal graph. A learnable routing mechanism then performs adaptive dependency filtering to capture time-varying temporal–spatial correlations, followed by graph convolution for load prediction. Validated on long-term industrial logs (52,075 multi-sensor samples at 20 min; district cooling plant in Zhangjiang, Shanghai, with multiple chillers, towers, pumps, building meters, and a weather station), OptiNet achieves consistently lower MAE and MSE than Graph WaveNet across 6–144-step horizons and sampling frequencies of 20–60 min; among 30 set-tings it leads in 26, with MSE reductions up to 27.8% (60 min, 72-step) and typical long-horizon (72–144 steps) gains of ≈2–18% MSE and ≈1–15% MAE. Crucially, the model provides interpretable spatial-temporal dependencies (e.g., “Zone B solar radiation influences Unit 2 load with 4-h lag”), enabling data-driven chiller sequencing strategies that reduce electricity consumption by 12.7% in real-world deployments—directly advancing energy-efficient building operations.

Keywords: chiller unit; cooling load prediction; graph neural network; dynamic dependency filtering; spatiotemporal forecast; dynamic routing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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