Hydro-Climatic Trends in Central Italy: A Case Study from the Aterno-Pescara River Watershed

Mohsin Tariq (), Eleonora Aruffo, Piero Chiacchiaretta and Piero Di Carlo
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Mohsin Tariq: DiSPuTeR, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Via Dei Vestini 31, 66100 Chieti, Italy
Eleonora Aruffo: Department of Advanced Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy
Piero Chiacchiaretta: Department of Advanced Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy
Piero Di Carlo: Department of Advanced Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 2, 1-17

Abstract: Climate change is reshaping water systems and trends in hydro-climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and river runoff, providing critical insights into the hydrological shifts influenced by climate change. However, the impact of climate variability on these variables varies by geographic location, making it necessary to study hydro-climatic variations in the Mediterranean’s changing climate to determine its impacts. This study analyzed the hydro-climatic trends in the Aterno-Pescara River watershed in central Italy from 1936 to 2013. We employed linear regression, Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope, and Spearman correlation tests to estimate annual and seasonal trends. The results showed a significant warming trend on annual (0.037 °C/year) and seasonal time scales. Precipitation trends exhibited significant reductions annually, specifically during the autumn season, with a decrease of −0.68 mm/year; while showing a decline, other seasons were statistically insignificant. River runoff revealed drying trends annually and seasonally, decreasing by −0.29 m 3 s −1 /year over the study period. Furthermore, linear regression and Spearman correlation coefficients suggested a significant relationship between hydro-climatic variables with varying strengths (at 95% and 99% confidence levels) annually and seasonally. This decrease in precipitation and river runoff trends with the continuous rate points towards potential meteorological and hydrological droughts occurring in the future in this watershed. This study’s findings provide scientific grounds that could help develop sustainable strategies in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change; trend analysis; hydro-climatic variables; central Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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