Risk Assessment in Mass Housing Projects Using the Integrated Method of Fuzzy Shannon Entropy and Fuzzy EDAS

Seyed Morteza Hatefi, Hanieh Ahmadi and Jolanta Tamošaitienė ()
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Seyed Morteza Hatefi: Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahrekord University, Rahbar Boulevard, P.O. Box 115, Shahrekord 8818634141, Iran
Hanieh Ahmadi: Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahrekord University, Rahbar Boulevard, P.O. Box 115, Shahrekord 8818634141, Iran
Jolanta Tamošaitienė: Institute of Sustainable Construction, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Saulėtekio al. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 2, 1-20

Abstract: Mass building projects play a key role in the economic prosperity of any country. Furthermore, these projects are among the main drivers of environmental and social problems. In recent years, with the spread of the concept of sustainable development in the life cycle of construction projects and the dynamic and eventful nature of these projects, the issue of risk management in the sustainable construction industry has received more and more attention among researchers. The construction industry, like other industries, faces various risks. Therefore, it is crucial to identify and evaluate risks in mass construction projects due to the high volume of work. In this study, an integrated model based on fuzzy Shannon entropy and fuzzy EDAS is proposed for risk assessment in large-scale building projects. Initially, by reviewing related articles, 66 effective sub-indicators are identified and classified into 18 risk categories, including 6 external risks and 12 internal risks. Subsequently, a questionnaire is designed to assess the three factors of detection, probability of occurrence, and severity risks for each risk index. This questionnaire distributes to 15 mass production companies in the construction field in Isfahan. The fuzzy Shannon entropy method is then applied to determine the weight of risk factors. The weights of each factor, detection, probability of occurrence, and severity, are calculated as 0.386, 0.342, and 0.273, respectively. These weights are used in the fuzzy EDAS method to prioritize the identified risks in mass-building projects. The results of the fuzzy EDAS method determined the three most critical risks: “inflation rate volatility”, “import/export restrictions”, and “unforeseen climatic conditions”. Additionally, three low-risk sub-indicators are obtained: “limitation on working hours”, “collapse of the structure”, and “unpredictable fire”.

Keywords: risk; risk assessment; mass housing construction; fuzzy EDA; EDAS-F; fuzzy Shannon entropy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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