Market Potential Evaluation of Photovoltaic Technologies in the Context of Future Architectural Trends

Jianguo Di, Wenge Liu, Jiaqi Sun and Dianfeng Zhang ()
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Jianguo Di: School of International Economics and International Relations, Faculty of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
Wenge Liu: School of International Economics and International Relations, Faculty of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
Jiaqi Sun: School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
Dianfeng Zhang: School of Management, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 3, 1-27

Abstract: In order to elucidate the market potential and competition strategies of various photovoltaic (PV) technologies in the context of future architectural trends, taking into account the aesthetic impact and evolving architectural styles, a suite of market assessment methodologies was proposed and applied to systematically evaluate five commercially available PV technologies. Three methodologies were employed or introduced: a comprehensive weighting approach that integrates the TOPSIS entropy weight method with user weight surveys, cumulative prospect theory (CPT), and a market integration method. The survey revealed that price emerged as the paramount factor distinguishing technologies, with a score of 4.8766, closely followed by conversion rates, at 4.8326. Aesthetics was deemed 3% more significant than government subsidies to consumers, scoring 4.4414. During the evaluation, technical indicators were translated into professional financial metrics. The results indicated that crystalline silicon PV technologies hold market advantages in both traditional and transparent applications. Monocrystalline silicon exhibited the highest utility in traditional settings, with a value of −0.0766, whereas polysilicon topped the charts in transparent applications, scoring −0.0676. However, when aesthetics was fully factored in, thin-film technologies began to outperform crystalline silicon, initially in transparent settings and subsequently in traditional ones. When both scenarios were merged, the market share of thin-film PVs increased with a rise in transparent applications, while that of crystalline silicon PVs decreased. Sensitivity and comparative analyses yielded diverse outcomes, validating the robustness of the findings. Further research unveiled that, beyond utility and cost, competition and technological factors also influence market shares, particularly when contemplating future shifts in architectural styles and innovations in product aesthetics. Considering the above, crystalline silicon PV can dominate the PVs in the building market due to their advantages of cost and efficiency, and thin-film PVs can increase their own market share with their aesthetic advantages in the future.

Keywords: photovoltaic; market potential assessment; cumulative prospect theory; transparent modules; architectural aesthetics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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