Research on Evolutionary Path of Land Development System Towards Carbon Neutrality

Cong Xu, Liying Shen () and Tso-Yu Lin
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Cong Xu: Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University, Taipei 116011, Taiwan
Liying Shen: Management College, Beijing Union University, Beijing 100101, China
Tso-Yu Lin: Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University, Taipei 116011, Taiwan

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 3, 1-27

Abstract: Based on complex system theory and multi-dimensional coupling analysis paradigm, this study constructs a dynamic model covering land use, real estate development, and carbon emissions, and deeply explores the internal mechanism and evolution law of land development system in the process of moving toward a low-carbon path. Firstly, through nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation analysis, this study identifies three typical transformation paths that the system may experience: gradual, transitional, and hybrid, emphasizing the nonlinear, phased, and highly context-dependent characteristics of the transformation process. On this basis, early warning indicators and robustness analysis methods are introduced, which provide operational tools for identifying critical turning points in the system and improving the effectiveness and resilience of regulatory strategies. Furthermore, this paper proposes a multi-level regulation mechanism design framework, which combines the immediate feedback with the historical cumulative effect to achieve the refined guidance of land development patterns and carbon emission paths. The results provide a scientific basis and practical enlightenment for land use optimization, green infrastructure construction, and industrial structure adjustment under the background of realizing the “3060” dual carbon goal and the reform of territorial spatial planning in China. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the empirical calibration of parameters, data-driven optimization, and collaborative research of multiple policy tools to further improve the applicability and decision-making reference value of the model.

Keywords: land development; low-carbon transition; complex system; bifurcation analysis; regulation mechanism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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