Evaluating Methane Emission Estimates from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Compared to Sentinel-Derived Air–Methane Data

Elżbieta Wójcik-Gront () and Agnieszka Wnuk
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Elżbieta Wójcik-Gront: Department of Biometry, Institute of Agriculture, Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
Agnieszka Wnuk: Department of Biometry, Institute of Agriculture, Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 3, 1-16

Abstract: This study compares the methane emission estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with satellite-based measurements from Sentinel-5P to assess trends in global methane emissions and concentrations. Focusing on the countries listed in Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the key sectors of Agriculture, Energy, industrial processes and product use, land use, land use change, forestry, and Waste, this analysis uses data from 1990 to 2021, evaluated through the Mann–Kendall trend test. The findings reveal a decline in methane emissions reported by the IPCC, particularly in the Energy and Waste sectors, driven by stricter environmental regulations and technological advancements in these regions. However, the satellite data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument for 2019–2024 indicate an increasing trend in atmospheric methane concentrations, suggesting that the reductions reported in the inventories may be insufficient to offset ongoing or previously accumulated emissions. The discrepancies between the IPCC inventories and the satellite observations highlight the challenges in methane source attribution and the limitations of relying solely on inventory-based methods. This study demonstrates the potential of integrating high-resolution satellite data with the traditional methodologies to improve the accuracy of methane emission estimates. Such an approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of methane dynamics, particularly in regions where natural and anthropogenic sources overlap. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of global methane emission trends and their implications for climate change. Integrating satellite observations into national inventories has practical applications for enhancing methane monitoring, improving emission reporting, and supporting global climate goals through the more effective and sustainable management of methane emissions.

Keywords: methane (CH 4 ); greenhouse gas (GHG); climate change; IPCC methodology; satellite data; emission trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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