Evaluation Index System for Thermokarst Lake Susceptibility: An Effective Tool for Disaster Warning on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Lan Li (), Yilu Zhao (), Xuan Li, Wankui Ni and Fujun Niu
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Lan Li: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian 463000, China
Yilu Zhao: School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Xuan Li: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian 463000, China
Wankui Ni: School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Fujun Niu: College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-15

Abstract: In the context of global warming, landscapes with ice-rich permafrost, such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), are highly vulnerable. The expansion of thermokarst lakes erodes the surrounding land, leading to collapses of various scales and posing a threat to nearby infrastructure and the environment. Assessing the susceptibility of thermokarst lakes in remote, data-scarce areas remains a challenging task. In this study, Landsat imagery and human–computer interaction were employed to improve the accuracy of thermokarst lake classification. The study also identified the key factors influencing the occurrence of thermokarst lakes, including the lake density, soil moisture (SM), slope, vegetation, snow cover, ground temperature, precipitation, and permafrost stability (PS). The results indicate that the most susceptible areas cover 19.02% of the QTP’s permafrost region, primarily located in southwestern Qinghai, northeastern Tibet, and the Hoh Xil region. This study provides a framework for mapping the spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes and contributes to understanding the impact of climate change on the QTP.

Keywords: thermokarst lakes; susceptibility assessment; permafrost region; Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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