A Muti-Scenario Prediction and Spatiotemporal Analysis of the LUCC and Carbon Storage Response: A Case Study of the Central Shanxi Urban Agglomeration

Yasi Zhu and Bin Quan ()
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Yasi Zhu: College of Geography and Tourism, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China
Bin Quan: College of Geography and Tourism, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-25

Abstract: Land use and cover change (LUCC) profoundly impacts the carbon cycle and carbon storage. Under the goal of “carbon neutrality”, studying the mechanisms linking LUCC with terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage is of significant importance for ecological protection and regional development. Using the central Shanxi urban agglomeration as a case study, this research employs various quantitative models based on land cover data to analyze changes in LUCC and carbon storage from 2000 to 2035. The study scientifically explores the impact of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of LUCC on carbon storage. The study indicates the following: (1) Over the past 20 years, the land types in the central Shanxi urban agglomeration are primarily grassland, cropland, and forest land. The two primary land transformations are the conversion of cropland to grassland and the conversion of grassland to cropland and forest land; (2) The carbon storage in the study area has shown a declining trend over the past two decades. Spatially, this decline exhibits a “two mountains and one valley” distribution pattern influenced by land use types. The reduction of grassland and cropland is the primary reason for the decline in carbon storage; (3) By 2035, under three different scenarios, carbon storage is projected to decrease compared to 2020. Among these, the scenario focused on cropland protection (CP) shows the least decline, while the naturally developing scenario (ND) shows the most significant decline. The research demonstrates that under scenarios of cropland protection and ecological conservation, strategies such as environmental restoration, development of unused land, and reclamation of built-up land for greening significantly enhance regional carbon storage and improve carbon sequestration capacity.

Keywords: land use and cover change; intensity analysis; InVEST model; carbon storage; PLUS model; the central Shanxi urban agglomeration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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