A Novel Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Quantifying Permafrost Impacts on Runoff Variability in the Yangtze River Source Region

Jiaxuan Chang, Xuefeng Sang (), Yun Zhang, Yangwen Jia, Junlin Qu, Yang Zheng and Haokai Ding
Additional contact information
Jiaxuan Chang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Xuefeng Sang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Yun Zhang: China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China
Yangwen Jia: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Junlin Qu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Yang Zheng: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Haokai Ding: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-21

Abstract: In the context of global climate change, understanding cryosphere degradation and its impact on water resources in alpine regions is crucial for sustainable development. This study investigates the relationship between permafrost degradation and runoff variations in the Source Region of the Yangtze River (SRYR), a critical water tower for sustainable water supply in Asia. We propose a novel method for assessing permafrost sensitivity, which establishes the correlation between cryosphere changes and hydrological responses, contributing to sustainable water resource management. Our research quantifies key uncertainties in runoff change attribution, providing essential data for sustainable decision making. Results show that changes in watershed characteristics account for up to 20% of runoff variation, with permafrost degradation (−0.02 sensitivity) demonstrating a greater influence than NDVI variations. The findings offer critical insights for the development of sustainable adaptation strategies, particularly in maintaining ecosystem services and ensuring long-term water security under changing climate conditions. This study offers a scientific basis for climate-resilient water management policies in high-altitude regions.

Keywords: Yangtze River; frozen ground; runoff changes; hydrological response; Budyko; water resource management; the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1570/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1570/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1570-:d:1590953

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().