Prediction of Construction Waste Generation in China Based on Grey Model and Management Recommendations

Xiuxiu Gao, Ying Yuan, Yizhi Wang, Ting Yang () and Tan Chen ()
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Xiuxiu Gao: China Architecture Design & Research Group, Beijing 100044, China
Ying Yuan: College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Yizhi Wang: College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Ting Yang: College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Tan Chen: College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: As urbanization and construction activities in China continue to accelerate, the management of construction waste has become crucial. This study comprehensively investigated the current status and challenges in construction waste management in China. Through the application of building area estimation methodology combined with the Grey Prediction GM (1,1) model, we analyzed historical waste generation patterns from 2000 to 2022 and projected future trends for the next 10 years. The results revealed significant regional disparities in waste generation, with the East China region contributing over 50% of the national total, while maintaining continuous growth. National construction waste generation is projected to reach 3.084 billion tons in 2032, highlighting escalating management challenges. This study identified several critical issues in China’s current management system, including incomplete statistical data, weak implementation of source reduction measures, underdeveloped classification systems, and a notably low resource utilization rate (below 10% as of 2022). Drawing on successful international practices and domestic pilot experiences, we proposed a comprehensive management framework emphasizing full-process supervision, enhanced data collection systems, improved classification management, advanced resource utilization technologies, and strengthened policy mechanisms. These proposals will foster the development of sustainable construction waste management in China’s transition, in parallel with the realization of circular economy principles within the construction sector.

Keywords: construction waste; grey prediction model; China; generation; management recommendations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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