Quantitative Evaluation of China’s Carbon Peaking Policies Based on PMC Index Model: Evidence from the First Batch of National Carbon Peak Pilot Provinces and Regions

Guangchen Wang and Lanqi Ju ()
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Guangchen Wang: School of Public Administration, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Lanqi Ju: School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-33

Abstract: The carbon peaking policy in China has been established within the context of global climate change, one of the most pressing environmental challenges of the 21st century. This study constructs a quantitative policy evaluation system based on the Policy Model Consistency Index (PMC-Index) model to assess the effectiveness of carbon peaking policies in the provinces selected for China’s first batch of carbon peaking pilot projects. This assessment is crucial for improving policy quality and effectiveness, as well as for providing direction for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality governance. The results show that the 15 carbon peaking action plan policies are generally rated as “good” and “acceptable” with an average score of 6.59. Seven core focus areas were identified within the policy texts, including green development, renewable energy use, technological innovation, key industry promotion, corporate management improvements, ecological protection, and achieving carbon neutrality. The study also identified a PMC surface map, visually illustrating the strengths and weaknesses of the policy texts. While the design of China’s carbon peaking policies is reasonable, there is still room for improvement, especially in integrating economic development with carbon reduction targets, enhancing policy timeliness, expanding policy coverage, increasing public participation, and strengthening market-based policy tools. This study proposes optimization paths for each policy from a specific perspective and provides clear directions for optimizing and improving the overall carbon peaking policy from a general perspective.

Keywords: carbon peaking policies; policy evaluation; PMC-Index model; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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