Electricity Demand Characteristics in the Energy Transition Pathway Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal for China

Chenmin He, Kejun Jiang (), Pianpian Xiang, Yujie Jiao and Mingzhu Li
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Chenmin He: Zhejiang Carbon Neutral Innovation Institute, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China
Kejun Jiang: Energy Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038, China
Pianpian Xiang: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Yujie Jiao: Department of Environmental Science, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Mingzhu Li: Department of Environmental Science, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: The energy transition towards achieving carbon neutrality is marked by the decarbonization of the power system and a high degree of electrification in end-use sectors. The decarbonization of the power system primarily relies on large-scale renewable energy, nuclear power, and fossil fuel-based power with carbon capture technologies. This structure of power supply introduces significant uncertainty in electricity supply. Due to the technological progress in end-use sectors and spatial reallocation of industries in China, the load curve and power supply curve is very different today. However, most studies’ analyses of future electricity systems are based on today’s load curve, which could be misleading when seeking to understand future electricity systems. Therefore, it is essential to thoroughly analyze changes in end-use load curves to better align electricity demand with supply. This paper analyzes the characteristics of electricity demand load under China’s future energy transition and economic transformation pathways using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment model of China (IPAC). It examines the electricity and energy usage characteristics of various sectors in six typical regions, provides 24-h load curves for two representative days, and evaluates the effectiveness of demand-side response in selected provinces in 2050. The study reveals that, with the transition of the energy system and the industrial relocation during economic transformation, the load curves in China’s major regions by 2050 will differ notably from those of today, with distinct characteristics emerging across different regions. With the costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power declining in the future, the resulting electricity price will also differ significantly from today. Daytime electricity prices will be notably lower than those during the evening peak, as the decrease in solar PV and wind power output leads to a significant increase in electricity costs. This pricing structure is expected to drive a strong demand-side response. Demand-side response can significantly improve the alignment between load curves and power supply.

Keywords: power system; carbon neutrality goal; energy transition; electricity supply and demand balance; demand-side response (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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